Swing state
From Conservapedia
Swing states are states in which neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are usually referred to as blue states and red states, repectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature.
It is expected that hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by Super PACs will be spent in these swing states in the fall of 2012.
Here are the key swing states for the Presidential Election 2012, ranked by likelihood that Barack Obama will lose them despite winning them in 2008. These eight swing states will have a total of 122 Electoral College votes in 2012. (In 2008 Obama won by a margin of only six of these states.)
News reports list these as the key swing states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.[1] Assuming that Republicans win Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire -- Romney has a home in New Hampshire and Virginia is now solidly Republican -- the entire election could be decided in only Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa. Romney is strong in Nevada, and it is far from clear that Democrats will win their strongholds of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
| Expected winner 2012 | State | Margin of Obama's win in 2008 | Indicators | Electoral Votes in 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easy Republican win this time | Indiana | 1% | Indiana was a red state from 1964 to 2004, and when Obama took the state in 2008 it was by an extremely narrow margin. Obama is currently very unpopular in the state. Obama has no chance of winning this state in 2012 and may not even try. | 11 |
| Very likely Republican win this time | Virginia | 6% | Elected a Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. Obama will probably lose this state by 5-10 points in 2012. | 13 |
| Toss-up | Pennsylvania | 10% | Obama's disapproval rating is high: 54%, and Republicans swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against Hillary Clinton.[2] | 20 |
| Romney leads by 7 points as of May | Florida | 2.8% | Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor Rick Scott is currently (Dec. 2011) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50% and without Florida his reelection is unlikely. | 29 |
| Toss up | Ohio | 4.6% | Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence who always vote democrat. | 18 |
| Toss-up | Wisconsin | 13.9% | Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their labor union allies, recall attempts in 2011 failed to overturn the GOP majority in the state senate. | 10 |
| Likely Republican win due to same-sex marriage issue. | North Carolina | 0.3% | The current Democratic governor, Bev Perdue, is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. | 15 |
| Toss-up | Nevada | 12.5% | A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for Republican Mark Amodei. Harry Reid won reelection in 2010 despite Tea Party opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. | 6 |
Other states of interest that can also be considered "swing states":
| State | Margin of Obama's win in 2008 | Indicators | Electoral Votes in 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 9% | Pro-life, pro-Christian Tim Tebow's phenomenal success for the Denver Broncos is changing the culture there. | 9 |
| Michigan | 16% | Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play. His father, George Romney, served as governor of the state. | 16 |
| Iowa | 9.5% | 6 | |
| New Hampshire | 9.6% | 4 | |
| New Mexico | 15% | 5 |
Contents |
2008 Swing States
- Colorado
- Florida
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- Virginia
